Intelligence explosion ... kind of slow

According to the Wikipedia entry

Intelligence explosion

In 1965, statistician I. J. Good wrote:
“ Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make. ”

—Good (1965).

Mathematician and author Vernor Vinge greatly popularized Good’s notion of an intelligence explosion in the 1980s, calling the creation of the first ultraintelligent machine the Singularity. Vinge first addressed the topic in print in the January 1983 issue of Omni magazine. He later collected his thoughts in the 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity," which contains the oft-quoted statement "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended." Vinge clarifies his estimate of the time scales involved, adding, "I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030."

its sort of interesting that the singularity seed popped out in 1965 ... but it really took off only around 2005 after masterful story telling by Vinge in the 80's ...

This is kind of slow ... 40 years in the desert ... before the bloom ... why were we so slow on the uptake ... in fact we're still kind of slow ... except for the summiteers ...


later in the article ...

“ One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. ”

—Ulam (1958), referring to a conversation with John von Neumann.

a vaguer notion of singularity discussed with one of the brightest candles of our era ... maybe 47 years in the desert ...